Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to stay high as retailers continue to bring in goods ahead of rising tariffs on China and potential trade restrictions on other nations, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Retailers Prepare for Tariff Challenges
“Supply chains are complex, and shifting them takes time,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He highlighted that while retailers are working to diversify their supply sources, new tariffs will likely push up consumer prices. To mitigate potential disruptions, retailers have been frontloading shipments, but added warehousing and logistics costs create additional hurdles.
Last Saturday, former President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. While tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been delayed by 30 days, tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect immediately, prompting retailers to ramp up import activity.
Tariffs’ Potential Impact on Port Activity
Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, pointed out that while tariffs on Canada and Mexico may initially cause limited disruptions due to most trade occurring via land transport, goods receiving final assembly in these countries could shift to direct maritime imports. Additionally, rising costs from tariffs on Asian and European imports could weaken consumer demand, potentially reducing port cargo volumes.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to determine whether the tariffs will stay in place long-term, be removed, or see further delays,” Hackett said.
Record-High Import Growth Despite Trade Uncertainty
Despite the uncertainty, U.S. ports continue to handle record-high cargo volumes. In December, ports processed 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a 14.4% increase from last year and the busiest December in history. Total imports for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEU, nearing the record set in 2021 of 25.8 million TEU.
Looking forward, the Global Port Tracker projects steady growth in early 2025:
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January: 2.11 million TEU, up 7.8% year-over-year.
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February: 1.96 million TEU, up 0.2% year-over-year.
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March: 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year-over-year.
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April: 2.18 million TEU, up 8.2% year-over-year.
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May: 2.19 million TEU, up 5.4% year-over-year.
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June: 2.13 million TEU, down 0.6% year-over-year.
Industry Outlook
The NRF continues to track economic conditions affecting retailers, with reports like the Global Port Tracker offering valuable insights into trade flow trends. The full report provides historical data and forecasts for key U.S. ports on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast, helping businesses adapt to the shifting trade landscape.
